• Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.7% in the second quarter of 2020, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0%. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9% for the second quarter.
  • Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) decreased 28.5% in the second quarter, following a decrease of 3.6% in the first quarter.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 33.1% in the second quarter of 2020, following a decrease of 2.5% in the first quarter.
  • The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 32.4% in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.7% in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5% in the second quarter of 2020, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
  • The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index decreased 1.8% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.0% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6% in the previous quarter.
  • Corporate profits from current production decreased $226.9 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $276.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $39.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $42.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $170.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $190.5 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $96.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $43.5 billion in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased 0.4% in July, and personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% in July, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. The core index also increased 0.3% in July.  The headline index was up 1.0%, and the core index was up 1.3% from July 2019.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 98 thousand to 1,006 thousand in the week ending August 22. The 4-week moving average was 1,068 thousand, a decrease of 107.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 15 was 14,535 thousand, a decrease of 223 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 15,215.75 thousand, a decrease of 604 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 9.9% for the week ending August 15, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “Beginning with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims News Release issued Thursday, September 3, 2020, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims will reflect additive factors as opposed to multiplicative factors.”
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that average fixed mortgage rates were falling. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.91% for the week ending August 27, down from last week when it averaged 2.99%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.58%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.46%, down from the previous week when it averaged 2.54%. A year ago, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.06%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 6.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 26th.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 74.1 in August, from 72.5 in July.  The Index was 89.8 a year ago. The Current Conditions Index inched up from 82.8 in July to 82.9 in August, while the Index of Consumer Expectations increased to 68.5 in August, from 65.9 in July.
  • There were 24,996,456 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 842,499 deaths, and 16,409,757 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 8/30/2020, 1:30 EST). In the United States, there are 5,961,094 confirmed cases, 182,761 deaths, and 2,140,614 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

 

  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 135 thousand to 1,106 thousand in the week ending August 15. The 4-week moving average was 1,175.75 thousand, a decrease of 79 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 8 was 14,844 thousand, a decrease of 636 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 15,841.25 thousand, a decrease of 326.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 10.2% for the week ending August 8, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • Unemployment rates were lower in July in 30 states, higher in 9 states, and stable in 11 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 40 states and the District of Columbia, decreased in 1 state, and was essentially unchanged in 9 states in July 2020. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 49 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 1 state.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 20th showed average fixed mortgage rates inched up. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99% for the week ending August 20, up from last week when it averaged 2.96%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.55%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.54%, up from last week when it averaged 2.46%. %. A year ago, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.03%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 3.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 14th.

 

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 2.7% from July 2019. Year-to-date, retail sales were down 2.1% from the same period a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 8.4% from the previous month, and inventories were down 1.1%. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of June was 1.37, compared with 1.39 in June 2019.
  • Total Industrial production increased 3.0% in July, following a 5.7% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in July was 8.2% below its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 70.6%, 9.2 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average, and 6.8 percentage points below its level in July 2019.
  • The import price index increased 0.7% in July, following a 1.4% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.8%, following a 1.2% increase in the previous month. The import price index decreased 3.3% from July 2019, while export prices decreased 4.4%.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.6% in July, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.3%, the same increase as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.4% for the 12 months ended in July. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1% during the same period.
  • The consumer price index increased 0.6% in July, the same increase as in the previous month. The core index increased 0.6%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index (headline index) increased 1.0% for the 12-month period ending in July, and the core index rose 1.6%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4% from June to July. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 7.3% in the second quarter of 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output decreased 38.9% and hours worked decreased 43.0%. From the second quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020, productivity increased 2.2%, reflecting an 11.8% decrease in output and a 13.7% decrease in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 12.2% in the second quarter of 2020 and increased 5.7% over a year ago.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 228 thousand to 963 thousand in the week ending August 8. The 4-week moving average was 1,252.75 thousand, a decrease of 86.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 1 was 15,486 thousand, a decrease of 604 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 16,169.5 thousand, a decrease of 454.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 10.6% for the week ending August 1, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moved up. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.96% for the week ending August 13, up from last week when it averaged 2.88%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.60%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.46%, up from last week when it averaged 2.44%. year ago, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.07%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 5.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 31st.

 

  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 249 thousand to 1,186 thousand in the week ending August 1. The 4-week moving average was 1,337.75 thousand, a decrease of 31 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 25 was 16,107 thousand, a decrease of 844 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 16,628.25 thousand, a decrease of 413.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.0% for the week ending July 25, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates dropped, hitting a record low for the eight time this year. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.88% for the week ending August 6, down from last week when it averaged 2.99%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.60%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.44%, down from last week when it averaged 2.51%. A year ago, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.05%.
  • Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0%. The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in personal consumption expenditures, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending.
  • Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) decreased 29.3% in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 3.6% in the first quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
  • The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index decreased 1.9%, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.1%, compared with an increase of 1.6%.
  • Current-dollar GDP decreased 34.3%, or $2.15 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.41 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4%, or $186.3 billion.
  • It was noted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis: “The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.
  • Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1%) in June according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $255.3 billion (1.4%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $737.7 billion (5.6%). Real DPI decreased 1.8% in June and real PCE increased 5.2%.
  • The PCE price index for June increased 0.4% from the previous month and increased 0.8% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2% from the previous month and increased 0.9% from June of 2019.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 12 thousand to 1,434 thousand in the week ending July 25. The 4-week moving average was 1,368.5 thousand, an increase of 6.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 18 was 17,018 thousand, an increase of 867 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 17,058.25 thousand, a decrease of 435.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.6% for the week ending July 18, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • Unemployment rates were higher in June than a year earlier in 388 of the 389 metropolitan areas and lower in 1 area, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A total of 218 areas had jobless rates of less than 10.0% and 6 areas had rates of at least 20.0%. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 307 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 82 areas. The national unemployment rate in June was 11.2%, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.8% a year earlier.
  • Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries increased 0.4% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from March 2020. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.7% for the 12-month period ending in June 2020, the same increase a year ago.
  • From September 2019 to December 2019, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.8 million, an increase of 490 thousand jobs from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.0 million, a decrease of 291 thousand jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 792 thousand jobs in the private sector during the fourth quarter of 2019.
  • Labor productivity rose 0.4% in wholesale trade, 5.3% in retail trade in 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unit labor costs, which reflect the total labor costs required to produce a unit of output, rose in wholesale trade and decreased in retail trade.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates decreasing slightly. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.99% for the week ending July 30, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.01%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.75%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.51%, down from last week when it averaged 2.54%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.20%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 0.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 24, 2020.
  • There were 17,859,763 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 685,179 deaths, and 10,564,263 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 8/2/2020, 10:00 EST). In the United States, there are 4,620,502 confirmed cases, 154,449 deaths, and 1,461,885 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

 

  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 109 thousand to 1,416 thousand in the week ending July 18. The 4-week moving average was 1,360.25 thousand, a decrease of 16.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 11 was 16,197 thousand, a decrease of 1,107 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 17,505.25 thousand, a decrease of 758.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.1% for the week ending July 11, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates rising for the first time in weeks. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.01% for the week ending July 23, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.98%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.75%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.54%, up from last week when it averaged 2.48%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.18%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 4.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 17, 2020.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.2% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through June, the leading index decreased 8.4% (about an 16.2% annual rate). The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 2.5% in June, following a 1.6% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through June, the coincident index decreased 9.8% (about a 18.6% annual rate).
  • There were 15,537,513 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 634,069 deaths, and 8,882,923 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/24/2020, 9:00 EST). In the United States, there are 4,039,523 confirmed cases, 144,308 deaths, and 1,233,269 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

 

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales increased 7.5% in June, following an increase of 18.2% in the previous month. Sales were up 1.1% from a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales were up 8.4%, following a 14.4% decrease in the previous month. Inventories were down 2.3% in May, following a 1.4% in the previous month. Sales in May were down 11.8% from a year ago, and inventories were down 4.8% from May 2019.
  • Total industrial production increased 5.4% in June, following a 1.4% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in June was 10.8% below its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 68.6%, 11.2 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average, and 9.1 percentage points below its level in June 2019.
  • Housing starts in June were up 17.3% from the previous month but were down 4.0% from June 2019. Building permits in June were up 2.1% from the previous month but were down 2.5% from June 2019. Year-to-date housing starts were up 0.7% and building permits were down 0.4% from the same period a year ago.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates hit the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.98% for the week ending July 16, down from last week when it averaged 3.03%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.81%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.48%, down from last week when it averaged 2.51%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.23%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 5.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 10, 2020.
  •  The import price index increased 1.4% in June, after a 0.8% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 1.4%, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The import price index decreased 3.8% from June 2019, while export prices decreased 4.4%.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.6% in June, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The index for all items less food and energy (the core) index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 0.6% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 1.2%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 1.7% from May to June. This result stems from a 1.2% decrease in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 10 thousand to 1,300 thousand in the week ending July 11. The 4-week moving average was 1,375 thousand, a decrease of 60 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 4 was 17,338 thousand, a decrease of 422 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 18,272.25 thousand, a decrease of 737.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.9% for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • Unemployment rates were lower in June in 42 states, higher in 5 states, and stable in 3 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forty-nine states and the District of Columbia had jobless rate increases from a year earlier and one state no change.
  • Nonfarm payroll employment increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in June. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity increased in almost all Districts but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer spending picked up as many nonessential businesses reopen. Retail sales rose in all Districts, led by a rebound in vehicle sales and sustained growth in the food and beverage and home improvement sectors. Leisure and hospitality spending improved but was well below year-ago levels. Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity moved up, but from a very low level. Home sales increased moderately, but commercial real estate activity stayed at a low level. Outlooks remained highly uncertain largely of the COVID-19 pandemic and the magnitude of its economic implications.
  • There were 13,888,874 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 592,719 deaths, and 7,779,676 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/17/2020, 14:30 EST). In the United States, there are 3,606,927 confirmed cases, 138,784 deaths, and 1,090,645 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the first quarter ranged from negative 1.3% in Nebraska to negative 8.2% in New York and Nevada. Accommodation and food services; finance and insurance; and health care and social assistance industries were the leading contributors to the 5.0% (annual rate) decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. All sectors of the U.S. economy contributed to the decrease, led by a decline in private services-producing industries.
  • The decline in first-quarter GDP reflected the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March. This led to rapid changes in production, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. Overall, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the first-quarter decline in real GDP. Of the five industry groups that offset the decline in the first-quarter real GDP, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting was the largest contributor, increasing 15.5%. For accommodation and food services, real value decreased 26.8% in the first quarter, primarily reflecting a decrease in food services and drinking places. Finance and insurance decreased 9.0%. The largest contributor to the decrease was insurance carriers and related activities.  Health care and social assistance decreased 7.8%, primarily reflecting decreases in ambulatory health care services and in hospitals. Arts, entertainment, and recreation decreased 34.7%, primarily reflecting a decrease in performing arts, spectator sports, museums, and related activities.
  • May 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 16.9% from the April level but were down 16.2% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 1.2% from the April level, and were down 4.2% from the revised May 2019 level.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.2% in June, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.3% in June, after a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.8% for the 12 months ended in June. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1% for the 12-months ended in June, the third 12-month decrease.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 99 thousand to 1,314 thousand in the week ending July 4. The 4-week moving average was 1,437.25 thousand, a decrease of 63 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 2719 was 18,062 thousand, a decrease of 698 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 19,085.5 thousand, a decrease of 636 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 12.4% for the week ending June 27, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • The number of hires increased by 2.4 million to a series high of 6.5 million in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was the largest monthly increase of hires since the series began. Total separations decreased by 5.8 million to 4.1 million, the single largest decrease since the series began. Within separations, the quits rate rose to 1.6% while the layoffs and discharges rate fell to 1.4%. Job openings increased to 5.4 million on the last business day of May. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates hit another all-time-record low. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.03% for the week ending July 9, down from last week when it averaged 3.07%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.75%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.51%, down from last week when it averaged 2.56%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.22%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 2.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 3, 2020.
  • There were 12,294,117 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 555,531 deaths, and 6,761,993 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/10/2020, 11:00 EST). In the United States, there are 3,118,168 confirmed cases, 133,291 deaths, and 969,111 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.
  • Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 4.4 million in June, following an increase of 2.699 million in May and a decrease of 20.787 million in April. Private-sector payrolls increased by 4.767 million in June, while government employment increased by 33 thousand.
  • In June, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 2.1 million, accounting for about 40% of the gain in total nonfarm employment. Over the month, employment in food services and drinking places rose by 1.5 million, following a gain of the same magnitude in May. Despite these gains, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 3.1 million since February. In June, employment in retail trade rose by 740 thousand, after a gain of 372 thousand in May and losses totaling 2.4 million in March and April combined. Employment increased by 568 thousand in education and health services in June but is 1.8 million below February’s level. Health care employment increased by 358 thousand over the month, with gains in offices of dentists (190 thousand), offices of physicians (80 thousand), and offices of other health practitioners (48 thousand). In June, manufacturing employment rose by 356 thousand, but is down by 757 thousand since February.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings decreased by 35 cents to $29.37. The decreases in average hourly earnings largely reflect job gains among lower-paid workers. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 5.0%.
  • The unemployment rate decreased to 11.1% in June, from 13.3% in May. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in June of 2019. Although unemployment fell in May and June, the jobless rate and the number of unemployed are up by 7.6 percentage points and 12.0 million, respectively, since February. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in June for adult men (10.2%), adult women (11.2%), teenagers (23.2%), Whites (10.1%), Blacks (15.4%), and Hispanics (14.5%). The jobless rates for Asians (13.8%) showed little change over the month.
  • The number of unemployed persons decreased by 3.235 million to 17.750 million. The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 4.8 million in June to 10.6 million, following a decline of 2.7 million in May. The number of permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 588 thousand in June to 2.9 million.
  • The number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks decreased by a million to 2.8 million. The number of unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks decreased by 3.3 million to 11.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 227 thousand to 1.4 million in June.
  • The labor force participation rate increased by 0.7 percentage point to 61.5% in June but is 1.9 percentage points below its February level.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 55 thousand to 1,427 thousand in the week ending June 27. The 4-week moving average was 1,503.75 thousand, a decrease of 117.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 20 was 19,290 thousand, an increase of 59 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 19,854 thousand, a decrease of 494.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.2% for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • Unemployment rates were higher in May than a year earlier in all 389 metropolitan areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 357 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 32 areas.
  • In May, international trade deficit in goods and services was $54.6 billion, up $4.8 billion from April. May exports were $144.5 billion, $6.6 billion less than April exports. May imports were $199.1 billion, $1.8 billion less than April imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $22.3 billion, or 9.1%, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $148.3 billion or 14.0%. Imports decreased $170.6 billion or 13.1%.
  • Construction spending during May 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,356.4 billion, 2.1% below the revised April estimate. The May figure is 0.3% above the May 2019 estimate. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $543.2 billion, 5.7% above the $513.7 billion for the same period in 2019.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates hit all-time-record low heading into holiday weekend. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.07% for the week ending July 2, down from 3.13% from last week. This was the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971. A year-ago, the 30-year rate was 3.75%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.56%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.59%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year rate averaged 3.18%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 1.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 26, 2020.
  • The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June was 78.1, up from 72.3 in May. The index was 98.2 in June of 2019. The current economic conditions component was 87.1 in June, compared with 82.3 in May. The index of consumer expectations increased to 72.3 in June, from 65.9 in May.
  • There were over 10,726,802 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 516,786 deaths, and 5,513,009 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/2/2020, 10:00 EST). In the United States, there were 2,686,927 confirmed cases, 128,064 deaths, and 729,994 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

 

  • Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 5.0% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1%. In the second estimate, released a month ago, the decrease in real GDP was also 5.0% for the first quarter. Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) decreased 3.5% in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2019.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 4.4% in the first quarter of 2020, compared with an increase of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2019. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 4.7% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7% in the first quarter of 2020, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 1.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7%, compared with an increase of 1.3%.
  • Corporate profits from current production decreased $262.8 billion in the first quarter of 2020, after an increase of $53.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $37.5 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $0.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $181.8 billion, compared with an increase of $53.7 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $43.5 billion in the first quarter, following a decrease of $1.4 billion.
  • Personal income decreased 4.2% in May, following a 10.8% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 8.2%, after a 12.6% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real disposable personal income decreased 5.0% in May, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 8.1%. The savings rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, was 23.2% in May, down from 32.2% in April. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in May, after a decrease of 0.5% in April. The core index increased 0.1%, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 0.5% from May 2019, while the core index was up 1.0%. BEA stated: “The May estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments continued but were at a lower level than in April, and government “stay-at-home” orders were partially lifted in May. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate for May because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
  • State personal income increased 2.3% at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2020, a deceleration from the 3.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 4.9% in New Mexico to negative 0.3% in Michigan.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased 15.8%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, following a 18.1% April decrease.  Excluding transportation, new orders increased 4.0%.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5%.  New orders for transportation equipment increased 80.7%. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May increased 4.4%, following a 18.6% decrease in April. Year-to-date, new orders decreased 13.6% from the same period, in 2019, while shipments decreased 11.3%.
  • Retail inventories for May, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $604.5 billion, down 6.1% from April 2020, and were down 9.5% from May 2019.
  • Wholesale inventories for May, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $642.2 billion, down 1.2% from April 2020, and were down 4.3% from May 2019.
  • The international trade deficit was 74.3 billion in May, up $3.6 billion from $70.7 billion in April.  Exports of goods for May were $90.1 billion, $5.5 billion less than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $164.4 billion, $1.9 billion less than April imports.
  • U.S. house prices rose 0.2% in April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).  House prices rose 5.5% from April 2019 to April 2020.  For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from March 2020 to April 2020 ranged from negative 0.5% in the South Atlantic division to 0.8% in the West South Central division.  The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from 5.0% in the Middle Atlantic division to +6.8% in the Mountain division.
  • Sales of new single-family houses in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676 thousand, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  This is 16.6% above the figure for April and is 12.7% above the May 2019 level. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 318 thousand.  This represents a supply of 5.6 months at the current sales rate, compared with 6.7 months in May 2019. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2020 was $317.9 thousand, up 1.7% from May 2019.  The average sales price was $368.8 thousand, down 2.7% from a year ago.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates were virtually unchanged. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 25, unchanged from last week. A year-ago, the 30-year rate was 3.73%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.59%, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.58%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year rate averaged 3.16%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 8.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 19, 2020.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 60 thousand to 1,480 thousand in the week ending June 20. The 4-week moving average was 1,620.75 thousand, a decrease of 160.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 13 was 19,522 thousand, a decrease of 767 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 20,421.25 thousand, a decrease of 329.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.4% for the week ending June 13, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • Labor productivity declines were widespread among manufacturing industries in 2019, with decreases in 54 of the 86 four-digit NAICS industries. Of the 51 industries in durable manufacturing, 31 had productivity decreases in 2019 led by a 7.8% decline in the productivity of the HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment industry. Nondurable manufacturing also had widespread declines in 2019 with productivity falling in 23 of 35 industries, led by a 13.1% decline in the other leather products industry. All four industries in the mining sector posted productivity declines in 2019 led by the coal mining industry with a decrease of 6.6%.
  • In 2019, 24% of employed persons did some or all of their work at home on days they worked, and 82% of employed persons did some or all of their work at their workplace, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, those who worked at their workplace worked for 7.9 hours, and those who worked at home did so for 3.3 hours. On an average day, 85 percent of women and 71 percent of men spent some time doing household activities, such as housework, cooking, lawn care, or household management. On an average day, 22 percent of men did housework—such as cleaning or laundry— compared with 46 percent of women.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey for June indicate continued weakness in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues showed positive readings for the first time since February. However, the new orders and employment indexes remained negative despite posting large gains from last month. The respondents expect overall improvement in conditions over the next six months, as both future activity indexes rose well into positive territory.
  • The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June was 78.1, up from 72.3 in May. The index was 98.2 in June of 2019. The current economic conditions component was 87.1 in June, compared with 82.3 in May. The index of consumer expectations increased to 72.3 in June, from 65.9 in May.
  • There were over 9,635,935 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 489,922 deaths, and 4,861,715 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 6/26/2020, 9:15 EST). In the United States, there were 2,422,312 confirmed cases, 124,415 deaths, and 663,562 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.